Interesting Info: Exit Polls 2008
We will live-blog throughout the day on November 4, 2008 for the general election early exit polls so use this thread to start the dialog. If the numbers were good for McCain, I’d be happy to hear it but wouldn’t put too much stock in it, because the exit polls presumably are of those who voted today, and wouldn’t take into account the early voters.
I’d remember how the exit poll data I was getting in the primaries often had often the most distant relationship with the actual results. There is no way, I repeat NO WAY anyone has exit poll numbers at this time. These “rules” are a response to the 2000 election and the issues that exit poll rumors presented in calling the election in 200 Gateway Pundit wonders if anyone is really paying attention. In their amazing world view, the race is extremely close as revealed by early exit polling. As far as the winners and losers projections, you can use this site to make comfortable winning projections based on the early exit polls.
On November 4, 2008, Americans will elect their 44th President of the United States, along with members of the 111th U.S. This page will track the results of “exit polls,” responses taken from voters as they exit polling stations around the country, state-by-state, which should give an early idea about how states are going to swing.
The problem with exit polls in this election is that they do not reflect early voters. Exit polls don’t reflect early voting . Before you get ahead of yourself, there’s a question that needs to be asked: Should you trust the exit polling data? Right now, if there’s one memory that remains - stinging - to a nation of Democratic voters it’s the memory of a slate of crazy Kerry-leaning exit polls that made it look like Bush was going down to defeat at about 4:30pm on Election Day. Second - “The problem with the exit polls has never really been a problem with the exit polls. They’ve been a problem with people incorrectly interpreting the exit polls; people who don’t know what the exit polls actually are.” Exit polls could be astoundingly accurate or terrifyingly wrong, but either way, there’s one thing that everyone who pimps them has in common: none of them really have any idea what they are talking about. Exit polls have been used in other countries, by us no less, to indicate if elections are being run in an honest manner. Suddenly we are asked to question the exit polls but not the results or the election. Why can”t we trust exit polls? Why should exit polls be accurate? Marc Ambinder sums up the exit poll phenomena, thusly: First - “anyone who claims to have exit poll data before then is either lying or has really, really good sources.”
If the numbers were bad for McCain, I’d remember that Fox News poll that said that his voters were 13 percent less likely to take the time to fill out an exit pollster’s questionairre.
IDP was most accurate in 2004, but CBS was right behind them. these national polls look at whole country so with Cali, NY and Illinois being strongly in Obama’s favor skews the national polls. Please check in tomorrow Matt, if you are right, I’ll eat crow, but I expect the race to end up MOE, Obama might win, but its not going to be a landslide like the polls predict. Lets remember the NH primary polls which all had Obama up pretty big, but Hillary ended up winning by The polls have been pretty crappy this year because Obama is hard to accurately poll. You basing final polling results on 1 poll, even though RCP shows Obama at + Final battleground poll shows a virtual tossup 2-point race, erasing prior market fears of an Obama mandate.
Leading up to the election are the usual questions. They wonder if poll A is beter than poll B and etc. Either you think there has been an ahistoric shift of an even voter identification to a +7-9 Dem voter identification in four years or you think there is probably a more reasonable shift of D+3 or so since 200 If you believe the former, then by all means believe all the polls, it is conceivable that this happens.
Hillary did MUCH better than projected in NC.
