hurricane ike projected path
You guys know me, I’m not one to jump on development potential whenever I see a cumulus cloud in the tropics.
Any deviation to the right or left will mean a big difference in what Florida can expect weatherwise on Thursday/Friday. The second storm to mention is Tropical Storm Ike. This storm is forecast to strengthen possibly into a major hurricane as it moves west.
The statistical-dynamical models such as the Ships and LGEM indicate gradual intensification to a hurricane before northeasterly shear increases over the system in 48 hours. The GFDL and HWRF apparently ignore such shear and forecast Ike to be a major hurricane in 3-4 days.
Ive seen this same model year after year be very wrong in its path prediction and wonder what value there is in even running it? There are a number of other models as well that I have noticed the same bad estimation year after year. Maybe like an ensemble of climate models, perhaps having a TC forecast model outlier(s) provides such a wide range that the ensemble range can never be wrong.
The other publically-available tools are seen as curiosities but not used, from what Ive seen. Judith, if the ECMWF forecasts are indeed superior then ECMWF could greatly grow their client base by making real-time public forecasts of storm paths for several storms, to demonstrate their capability.
David #31, someone correct me if I am wrong, but Europe doesnt see hurricanes too often and probably does not expend the resources of NCEP, Navy, etc. David #31, someone correct me if I am wrong, but Europe doesnt see hurricanes too often and probably does not expend the resources of NCEP, Navy, etc. ECMWF puts the bulk of their effort behind the best global model and ensemble in the world with state of the art data assimilation that is arguable unmatched in many areas.
Kenneth, the simulations of individual storms using the 15 day 40 km resolution Var EPS ensemble prediction system provides a far better simulation of the hurricanes than does the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system with resolution of about 125 km, which can only simulate the largest storms and seasonal numbers of total tropical cyclones need to be adjusted to climatology. Hurricanes are not a focus of ECMWF since they dont strike Europe, only striking a few European islands in the Caribbean.
Current track is very similar to 1965 Betsy, the first billion dollar hurricane, which overwhelmed NO levees and caused extensive flooding.
A best track is prepared for every tropical cyclone, after the fact, using all available data. From this I would conclude that forecasts are updated with real data and it is perhaps the availability and quality of these data that can improve tracking over time, but intensity changes being less well understood (we have discussed sudden changes in hurricane intensities on other threads at CA) are less susceptible to improvement with real data.
I thought you also might find this bit of discussion on the above site amusing. The National Hurricane Center does not generate a graphic of the guidance models it uses to produce its forecasts. Such graphics have the potential to confuse users and to undermine the effectiveness of NHC official tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings.
To my knowledge, there is one person at ECMWF working part time on hurricane stuff. Researchers or consulting firms who pay $$ for the ECMWF realtime forecast products are producing some very interesting results related to hurricanes, for which there is apparently no perceived advantage seen in making any such forecasts public.
Be sure to ask other family members, friends and neighbors if they are hurricane aware, be prepared and ready.
Family Disaster Plan Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard; Determine escape routes from your home as certain areas could be inundated by flooding and storm surge in low lying areas; Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate; Post emergency telephone numbers by your phones and make sure your children know how and when to call; Check your insurance coverage; Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.
Governor Richards reminds residents to be prepared as the 2008 hurricane season continues to become more active.
All this from a minimal hurricane that tracked across the DelMarVa, a good 180 miles from Philly.
Mr. Foot is an Earth and Environmental Science Teacher from Dundalk High School in Baltimore County, Maryland and has forecasted storms for over 20 years. The February 2003 President’s Day Blizzard and Hurricane Isabel’s impacts on the Chesapeake Bay that September prompted this site for teaching students, colleagues and family about high risk weather events.
Rising AC costs, UV, glare, and the hazard potential of flying glass during a wind storm, hurricane is a real problem.
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The tropical season is approaching it’s climatalogical peak in the next couple of weeks. It already reached hurricane strength(category 1) once prior to making landfall on the island of Haiti and is forecast to regain that status as early as late tonight as it moves back over open waters.
KEY WEST - Officials urged visitors to leave the Florida Keys on Sunday ahead of Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Storm Fay, which forecasters said could strengthen to a hurricane.
The 2008 Osceola Hurricane Handbook includes information on hurricanes and floods, helpful phone numbers, a disaster supplies checklist and a hurricane tracking chart.
St.Maarten/St.Martin - Local Reports (Caribbean Hurricane Network) Hurricane Gustav Climate Audit Orlando Sentinel - Hurricane Blog: Hurricane archives by Kris Hey
There is still a lot of warm deep water in Hurricane Ike’s projected path before it approaches the United States.
This could end up a very dangerous path if in fact Florida is also affected by Hurricane Hanna, which the National Hurricane center is currently predicting.
Although, not officially Hurricane Ike as of yet, we do feel Tropical storm Ike will become a Hurricane within 24 hours. In this recent string of hurricanes, only Hurricane Gustav had really threatened to reach that high while making landfall.
Hurricane Ike became a Category 4 storm over the Atlantic Ocean early Thursday.
Already, Hurricane Ike has become a Category 4 hurricane as it heads through the Atlantic Ocean.
Experts at the National Hurricane Center say it is still too early to tell what, if any, land areas could be hit by Hurricane Ike.
Hurricane Ike may turn out to be even more worrisome than Fey, Gustav or Hanna.
If Hurricane Ike stays strong, it could hit the already beleaguered Bahamas by Monday.
Ike’s wind are now up to a maximum of 215 kilometers, or 135 mph.
Find Find ” Local Local Local Local ” Follow Hurricane Ike’s Projected Pa.
Tropical Storm Hannah may reach category 1 status before sliding up the east coast of the United States, but the one hurricane we should be watching now is Hurricane Ike.
